The Promise of What’s Next
AI isn’t the endgame. It’s the opening act.
In our first two blogs, we pulled back the curtain on AI — showing that behind the glow of innovation lies an industrial machine reshaping how we use energy, water, and land. We also explored how those consequences are already playing out across the globe.
On the horizon stands quantum computing — a technology so powerful it could reshape cryptography, accelerate drug discovery, model new materials for clean energy, and solve optimisation problems that stump today’s most advanced supercomputers.
The promise is intoxicating: breakthroughs in hours instead of years. A new leap for science, medicine, climate, and industry.
But if the first wave of AI has already strained our grids and drained our water, what happens when we add a new class of machine into the mix?
The Hidden Physics of Quantum
At the heart of these machines are qubits — the basic units of quantum computing. If a classical computer is built on bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers are built on qubits. What makes them powerful is also what makes them fragile: qubits can do extraordinary things, but only if they’re kept under extreme conditions.
Quantum doesn’t run on rows of warm servers. It relies on machines cooled to near absolute zero.
- Superconducting quantum computers (like those at IBM and Google) keep their qubits inside dilution refrigerators colder than outer space. Running them requires massive refrigeration systems — cryogenic compressors drawing tens of kilowatts each, often water-cooled.
- Other approaches, like trapped-ion or neutral-atom machines, avoid extreme refrigeration but still depend on racks of powerful lasers, optics, and vacuum chambers — energy-hungry in their own right.
The result? Machines with dazzling potential… and a growing environmental footprint that leaders can’t afford to ignore.
Research Brief: Power Collisions Ahead
The numbers tell a sobering story.
- AI today: Data centres already consume around 4% of U.S. electricity. By 2030, that share could hit 9–12% (DOE/EPRI). Globally, the International Energy Agency projects energy use will surge from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh in 2030 — more than doubling.
- Quantum tomorrow: Today’s systems draw tens of kilowatts. But at scale, experts estimate tens to hundreds of megawatts per site. RAND projects a single cryptography-capable machine could require 125 MW — equivalent to a mid-sized power plant.
- The trajectory: Instead of AI being the end of the story, it’s Act I. Quantum adds another layer of consumption — and another collision course between digital growth and physical limits.
This is not theoretical. It’s the same pattern we’ve just seen with AI: hype first, infrastructure second, consequences last.
Government Readiness: Who’s Stepping Up, Who’s Falling Behind
It’s not just businesses that need to prepare. Governments carry enormous responsibility in shaping how quantum unfolds — and readiness is uneven.
- The UK has launched a £2.5 billion, 10-year National Quantum Strategy, complete with a dedicated Office for Quantum and ambitious national missions.
- The United States continues to expand its National Quantum Initiative, with DARPA funding benchmarking programs and new legislation to accelerate use in manufacturing, energy, and healthcare.
- India is investing ₹6003 crore (≈US$730m) in its National Quantum Mission, combining satellite projects with regional hubs for research and innovation.
- Australia released its National Quantum Strategy in 2023, with nearly A$1 billion invested in infrastructure and talent — including a bold partnership with PsiQuantum to build a fault-tolerant quantum machine in Brisbane. Government forecasts suggest the industry could add $6 billion to the economy and 19,000 jobs by 2045.
- Canada and the Nordics remain leaders in research and talent, while the UAE has established a national institute focused on quantum computing and cryptography.
But readiness isn’t universal. Many governments are lagging or absent altogether — which means risk doesn’t disappear, it shifts downstream. In those regions, small businesses and citizens will carry the burden first, while giants in better-prepared nations surge ahead.
This is a leadership issue. National strategies show what’s possible when foresight is applied. Silence or delay simply outsource the toll — to communities, economies, and future generations.
Can We Retrofit Our Way Out?
Some argue: “Don’t worry — today’s server farms will become tomorrow’s quantum farms.”
Reality check: pilots can be retrofitted, but scale cannot.
Yes, small systems can be installed inside existing data centres. But at fault-tolerant scale, the challenges are steep:
- Vibrations — qubits collapse under even tiny disturbances.
- Electrical noise — server halls are hostile to fragile quantum states.
- Cooling demands — compressors still dump heat into water-cooled chillers.
- Helium scarcity — dilution fridges rely on helium-3, a rare isotope already in short supply.
Translation: early systems may fit inside today’s racks, but the future will require purpose-built quantum infrastructure. Pretending otherwise risks billions in sunk costs — and leaves communities carrying the toll.
Who Carries the Risk?
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: not all organisations will feel quantum’s arrival equally.
- The giants — governments, banks, and big tech — are already preparing. They’re rolling out “post-quantum cryptography” in browsers, cloud platforms, and secure networks. For them, migration is expensive, but manageable.
- The rest of us — small businesses and everyday users — are the most exposed. Why? Because most assume security is “built-in.” They don’t have teams mapping where encryption lives in devices, apps, and contracts. They depend on vendors to do it for them.
That creates a dangerous gap. Sensitive data — health records, IP, financials — is being encrypted today with algorithms that quantum will eventually break. Attackers can record it now and decrypt it later — a harvest-now, decrypt-later attack.
And everyday devices? Smart home systems, medical devices, even cars. Many will still be in use long after their cryptography is obsolete. Without foresight, we risk a two-speed world of security — where the giants are protected, and small players are left exposed.
A Glimpse of Possibility
Not all outcomes need to be bleak. The Nordics offer a glimpse of what’s possible: in Denmark, Meta’s Odense data centre now provides waste heat to warm 9,000 homes. With cleaner grids and colder climates, these models show that digital infrastructure doesn’t always need to drain — it can also give back.
For quantum, this is a signal. If we design its environments with foresight, the same principles could apply: capturing waste, recycling heat, or finding creative ways to offset the toll.
The message is clear: if leaders build with foresight, we can bend the curve toward resilience, sustainability, and responsibility — instead of repeating the mistakes of AI at greater scale.
The Risk Rebel Lens
Risk Rebels don’t shy away from uncomfortable truths. We step into them.
The challenge with quantum isn’t just whether it works — it’s whether we design and deploy it responsibly.
Leadership means asking the questions others avoid:
- What’s our roadmap to cut energy per logical qubit — the usable unit of quantum power — year after year?
- If we hit a multi-year drought, what’s our no-water cooling plan?
- Are our suppliers recovering scarce helium-3, or burning through it?
- How do we ensure accountability flows across the supply chain, not outsourced to regulators or “the market”?
Because if you benefit from quantum’s progress, you also carry responsibility for its toll — on people, communities, and ecosystems.
A Call to Courage
Quantum could unlock breakthroughs that save lives, cut emissions, and transform resilience. But progress without responsibility always leaves a toll.
This is the moment for leaders to prove that courage isn’t about rushing first or holding back in fear — it’s about choosing the wiser path.
Courage means asking:
- Will this decision protect as well as create?
- Will it serve not just shareholders, but citizens, communities, and ecosystems?
- Will the story told about our leadership decades from now be one of foresight — or of short-sighted gain at irreversible cost?
Because leadership isn’t only measured in what you build. It’s measured in what you safeguard while you build.
And let’s be clear: the decisions we make now won’t just define the organisations we lead — they will shape the world inherited by the next generation. That is the true test of leadership.
This is bigger than quarterly results. Bigger than hype cycles. Bigger than us.
The leaders remembered tomorrow will not be the ones who blindly embraced the race, nor the ones who froze on the sidelines. They will be the ones who had the courage to hold both truths at once: that quantum is filled with opportunity, and that it carries risks we cannot afford to ignore.
They will be the ones who stretched beyond today’s easy wins to protect a future where people, planet, and progress can thrive together.
Quantum isn’t just colder computing. It’s the next great test of leadership. And whether we pass it or not depends on the courage we show today.
👊 Risk Rebels, what say you?
